This year’s list of Oscar winners is sadly one of the least fun to predict in recent years.
Everything surrounding Oscar’s top honour just screams “No Country! No Country! No Country!” and the guilds are heavily responsible for that; not that their one consistent choice for all four guild awards was undeserving, but when it comes to awards season, I like to believe that the more unpredictable, the better – just as long as a deserving film gets honoured in the end, that is.
Despite all the hype over Oscar’s 80th birthday and the drama behind whether or not Hollywood’s biggest event of the year will take place, what was once a highly exciting Oscar season in December last year all the way through January this year has shrunk into what seems will be an evening of expected, unexciting wins.
2007’s Oscar Season In A Nutshell
Once upon a December 2007, Atonement seemed to be the film to beat, with massive buzz over a Best Picture nomination as well as recognition in the director, actor, actress and supporting actress categories. A collection of technical awards at that time seemed to be a sure thing as well.
But then came January when There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton and No Country for Old Men swept practically all the Critics Awards, leaving Atonement with honours in mostly just “Top Ten Films of 2007” lists.
And then the highly controversial press conference-styled Golden Globes took place and sent shockwaves among journalists worldwide when Atonement grabbed top honours, beating current Best Picture Oscar nominees, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood and Michael Clayton.
Later on, however, Atonement was snubbed by every guild that highly influences Academy voters – the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America – and as many as 8 other films suddenly overthrew the Oscar buzz and love that Atonement once had at the year end.
Critics and audiences loved Juno. Into The Wild seemed like an Oscar favourite. Sweeney Todd and American Gangster had big names behind them. The rave over The Diving Bell And The Butterfly’s artistic element was too strong for the film to be ignored. And No Country, Clayton and Blood were consistent at the precursors to the Oscars.
The (Almost) Unpredictable Nominations List
Each of the acting categories and the director categories may have had frontrunners and dark horses for the statuettes all the way till nomination day, but who would take the remaining 3 spots in each category was anybody’s guess, with such a wide range of performances recognised throughout the season this year (not that all of them were all that outstanding).
With that, it was clear nominations day for the Academy Awards would be everything but predictable, and Oscar fans and predictors all around the world had their share of fun casting their predictions and arguing in forums or (if they’re friends with each other) during meet-ups.
When the list finally came out, we were reminded that the Academy occasionally loves to surprise viewers, not by compromising quality, of course. Jason Reitman (Juno) for director, Laura Linney (The Savages) for actress and Tommy Lee Jones (In The Valley of Elah) for actor were fine surprise choices.
And despite the complete snub from the guilds, Atonement made it to the Best Picture list.
The Possible Calm Before The Storm
But with No Country’s sweep at all the guilds, at this point in time, we’re thinking it’s going to be an evening of expected (but mostly deserving) winners come Feb 24.
At the same time, we’re as hyped up for some major shockers and blows as we possibly could be, because we know – especially since this year’s the big 80 – the Academy loves to give us journalists (and the rest of the world) something juicy to talk about.
In the mean time, here’s my two-cents’ worth on the Oscar game thus far.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney – “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “There Will Be Blood”
Johnny Depp – “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Tommy Lee Jones – “In The Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen – “Eastern Promises”
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – “There Will Be Blood”
This is Daniel Day-Lewis’s to keep. For such a dense role and an exploration of a character far deeper than that of his Oscar-nominated performance in Gangs Of New York (for which he was tipped to win, but lost to Adrien Brody for The Pianist), the Academy would be too cruel to pull another Brody stunt on Day-Lewis. With the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Screen Actors Guild Award and the Critics Choice Award already on his mantel, it’s only a matter of time before a second Oscar is added to his well-deserved collection.
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – “There Will Be Blood”
Day-Lewis, by a mile. His was the richest leading portrayal this season and, again, his snub in 2003 was too sad an event for anyone to overlook (no offense to Brody).
Should Have Been Nominated: James MacAvoy – “Atonement”
Though I fully support Day-Lewis for the win, I was rooting for a nomination for James McAvoy from the beginning. Tough call, some might say, considering he was snubbed by the SAG. Still, his was a beautiful performance that gave weight to the film and he pulled off some really difficult scenes, significantly the 5-minute single shot in war-torn Dunkirk.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie – “Away From Her”
Marion Cotillard – “La Vie En Rose”
Laura Linney – “The Savages”
Ellen Page – “Juno”
Who Will Win: Marion Cotillard – “La Vie En Rose”
2 weeks ago, I would have reluctantly chosen Julie Christie. Her Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and SAG Award would explain why. But the BAFTAs gave me reason to stand up for who I truly feel deserves the honour, and I’ll take a chance for all Marion Cotillard’s performance is worth and say that she’ll bring home the gold. I just can’t see how such a magnificent transformation and portrayal can be overlooked, foreign language issue or no foreign language issue. She deserves it and I’m taking a chance. Period.
Who Should Win: Marion Cotillard – “La Vie En Rose”
It’s obvious.
Should Have Been Nominated: Tang Wei – “Lust, Caution”
She may have lost the Golden Horse to Joan Chen, but there’s no doubt Tang Wei’s debut performance is one of the best of 2007. It plays with your mind throughout and has an impact that’s brutal and heartbreaking. Laura Linney beating Amy Adams, Jodie Foster, Keira Knightley and even Anjelina Jolie for the last spot in this list is understandable. Her getting a nomination but not her more outstanding co-star, Philip Seymour Hoffman, may even be acceptable in the long run. But for such a rich performance like Tang Wei’s to be overlooked is truly unjust.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck – “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem – “No Country for Old Men”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Hal Holbrook – “Into The Wild”
Tom Wilkinson – “Michael Clayton”
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem – “No Country for Old Men”
If Javier Bardem received his “497th award” at the SAG Awards as quoted by his co-star Josh Brolin during his acceptance speech, then including his BAFTA, Bardem will receive his 499th award come Oscar night. The Academy’s love for No Country will definitely spill over the supporting actor category.
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck – “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Casey Affleck’s performance was flawless, in my opinion, and if it were up to me, I’d hand it to Affleck rather than Bardem. No doubt Bardem gave one horrifying performance in No Country, but with every naïve gesture, flicker and faintness of his eye and hoarseness of his voice, Affleck’s portrayal was intricately perfect.
Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Dano – “There Will Be Blood”
Dano was robbed. He gave There Will Be Blood nearly as much weight as Day-Lewis did and both resonated brilliant performances off each other.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee – “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan – “Atonement”
Amy Ryan – “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton – “Michael Clayton”
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett – “I’m Not There”
There were some really fabulous performances this year by supporting actresses, and that accounts for the ride this category has been on this season – from the early buzz over Blanchett’s sure-win to Ryan’s Critics Awards sweep to Ruby Dee’s controversial SAG win (and if you really thought it made any difference, Swinton’s BAFTA win).
Still, one can’t deny the Academy’s obvious love for Blanchett. She won’t just make history as the 11th performer to score nods in both lead and supporting acting categories, but will go on to win this award come Oscar night. Some, even fans, may say that she’s done better work, but this role is definitely juicy enough for Oscar voters to say “let’s give it to her”.
Who Should Win: Amy Ryan – “Gone Baby Gone”
In my world, Blanchett deserves as many Oscars as she’s eligible for, but Amy Ryan was just mind-blowing as the stubborn mother of a kidnapped child to not be noticed. She brought such a force and depth to her character that if the Academy does vote based solely on individual performances, may she being home the gold on Oscar night.
Should Have Been Nominated: Vanessa Redgrave – “Atonement”
If voters were leaving the last spot for a veteran, it should have been Redgrave over Dee. With 3 great performances in 2007, especially the heartbreaking 2-minute shot in Atonement that was far better than Dee’s “I will leave you!” line, Redgrave was undoubtedly more deserving of the nomination.
BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel – “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
Jason Reitman – “Juno”
Tony Gilroy – “Michael Clayton”
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – “No Country for Old Men”
Paul Thomas Anderson – “There Will Be Blood”
Who Will Win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – “No Country for Old Men”
They’re the hottest individuals this Oscar season, that’s for sure, and it’s only a matter of time before they finally receive the recognition in this category; the recognition they were neglected for Fargo in 1997. Come Oscar night, there may be blood, there may be surprises, but there definitely will be a triumph for the Coen Brothers, and not even Julian Schnabel’s amazing artistry can pull them down.
Who Should Win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – “No Country for Old Men”
Scorsese’s finally received his. It’s the Coen Brothers’ turn now.
Should Have Been Nominated: Joe Wright – “Atonement”
The fact that he’s overcome what was once an impossibility of adapting the novel onto the screen is by itself an extraordinary achievement. Of all the people responsible for the magnificent film that Atonement turned out to be, Joe Wright is most deserving of at least a nomination. He’s brought with his solution to the impossible task some incredible performances and visuals, something that definitely puts him on par with the Coen Brother s and Anderson. Gilroy’s place in the list was simply undeserving.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: Atonement
I’m going to take another chance here, although it’s real easy to go for awards juggernaut No Country for Old Men. Of all the films nominated in this category (and what a remarkable list it is), Atonement is closest to what usually is Oscar’s taste. Yes, the odds are highly against Atonement because the film didn’t score at least a nod in either director or editing categories. But there’s just been too much hype over No Country that I sense a Crash-Brokeback-Mountain déjà vu taking place. Atonement’s snubs by the guilds is what, I sense, to be the calm before a mighty storm.
Who Should Win: Atonement
It demolished what was considered to be a huge barrier between novels and the big screen, blurred the lines between what can and cannot be made for cinema and proves that the power of the movies meets no boundaries. How’s that for a reason?
Should Have Been Nominated: Lust, Caution
American Gangster, The Diving Bell And The Butterfly, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street and Into The Wild would not have made this competition as tight as the Academy’s final 5 choices have. Atonement has a chance of throwing the surprise that it did at the Golden Globes, the humungous love for Juno puts it at a very good position, Michael Clayton scored nominations in all the important categories and There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men have been going head-to-head all season.
But Lust, Caution would have made things very interesting here, and in terms of artistic elements, direction and (mother, may I) brilliant performances, the film is definitely as strong as many of the big titles that’s been constantly mentioned throughout the Oscar season.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody – “Juno”
Nancy Oliver – “Lars And The Real Girl”
Tony Gilroy – “Michael Clayton”
Brad Bird – “Ratatouille”
Tamara Jenkins – “The Savages”
Who Will Win: Diablo Cody – “Juno”
It was the wittiest script all year, filled with warmth, get-wrenching humour, and some very interesting scenes. With all the recognition Cody’s received throughout this Oscar season, it’s for sure the Oscar belongs to her.
Who Should Win: Diabo Cody – “Juno”
Ditto to the above comment.
Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Zaillian – “American Gangster”
If Ruby Dee could have been nominated for that “I will leave you!” line, might as well recognize the person who wrote it. Kidding!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton – “Atonement”
Sarah Polley – “Away From Her”
Ronald Harwood – “The Diving Bell And The Butterfly”
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – “No Country for Old Men”
Paul Thomas Anderson – “There Will Be Blood”
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – “There Will Be Blood”
If Anderson were to win anything this year, it would be this award. The Coens have triumphed in this category before, which isn’t necessarily a good reason to say that they won’t win again, but it’s highly likely that Anderson will win here if the Academy is going to honour Anderson at all.
Who Should Win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen – “No Country for Old Men”
Arguably the most intense and riveting script this year.
Should Have Been Nominated: None
These were clearly the 5 best adapted scripts of 2007. Neither American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War, Reservation Road nor Lust, Caution couldn’t have beaten any of the nominated films in this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
It may be the same cinematographer for No Country for Old Men (yes, double nomination!), and No Country may be tipped to win as many awards as it can to justify it’s possible Best Picture win, but Jesse James’s cinematography was what made the film as elegant as it was (together with Affleck’s performance) and beats any of the films nominated by a mile. The brilliant and smooth camerawork and exploration of some real interesting perspectives – especially during the train robbery scene – made the cinematography for this film undoubtedly the year’s best.
BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: Atonement
It’s a tough call between Sweeney Todd and Atonement, but there’s definitely more love for the latter, and the love will be reflected in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Who Will Win: Atonement
Every beat of the typewriter makes for one of the most intelligent scores produced in recent history. Dario Marianelli clearly understands the danger of words in this film and the impact they had on the lives of the 3 main characters.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Raise It Up – “August Rush”
That’s How You Know – “Enchanted”
Happy Working Song – “Enchanted”
So Close – “Enchanted”
Falling Slowly – “Once”
Who Will Win: Falling Slowly – “Once”
Chances are Enchanted won’t win, and it’s not just because Dreamgirls lost despite garnering 3 nominations last year as well, but because Falling Slowly has so much meaning to its lyrics and its tune that it leaves you more enchanted than any of the 3 songs.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Across The Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie En Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Who Will Win: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
It set the mood and time of the film more than any other element. It practically defined the film.
BEST MAKEUP
La Vie En Rose
Norbit
Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World’s End
Who Will Win: La Vie En Rose
One reason why we’re so astonished by the film and Cotillard’s performance is the transformation that she goes through. The makeup is highly responsible for that amazing portrayal.
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
This is where the film shines, together with it’s editing. But if it’s going to win anything, it’s this, because sound mixing in my books is for Transformers to keep.
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 To Yuma
Transformers
Who Will Win: Transformers
There’s no denying it. The sound quality in this film was excellent.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirated of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers
Who Will Win: Transformers
This is as good as a lock. A allegedly fun-filled action piece is always the perfect candidate for this award
Best Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Into The Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
I’d have gone with The Diving Bell And The Butterfly if this category hadn’t been a common Best Picture indicator. Voters will go for No Country for Old Men if it it’s going to win the big award.
